The FilmSoc Blog Predicts The Oscars

The big day is nearly here – the festival debuts, clever (or not so clever) campaigning, (leaked) screeners, rants over total wild cards somehow making it (oh hi, Deadpool), the hot takes, the think pieces, the frontrunner backlash and ‘frontlash’, the guild awards, the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs: they have all led to this moment. Or rather, will lead to Sunday night/early Monday morning, which is when the 89th Academy Awards will be handed out at Hollywood’s Dolby Theatre.

Before flicking on that Sky box (with a bit of Twitter on the side) for what is sure to be an eventful late night, we’ve gathered the team here at the FilmSoc blog to deliver our predictions. Given there’s more than a few of us on the team, we have decided to do this by a vote; and given all the factors outside of a film’s actual merit, each of the 24 categories will have both a Will Win and a Should Win choice. So without further ado, read on after Screen Junkies’ brilliant Honest Trailer for our picks:

Best Picture

Arrival (SHOULD WIN)  our Best Picture Spotlight

Fences – our review

Hacksaw Ridge our review

Hell or High Water  our Best Picture Spotlight

Hidden Figures – our review

La La Land (WILL WIN) our review

Lion our review

Manchester by the Sea our review

Moonlight our review

Best Actor In A Leading Role

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (WILL and SHOULD WIN)

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington, Fences

Best Actress In A Leading Role

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving our review

Natalie Portman, Jackie (tied SHOULD WIN) our review

Emma Stone, La La Land (WILL WIN/tied SHOULD WIN)

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (WILL and SHOULD WIN)

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Best Actress In A Supporting Role

Viola Davis, Fences (WILL and SHOULD WIN)

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Best Animated Feature Film

Kubo and the Two Strings (SHOULD WIN)


My Life as a Zucchini

The Red Turtle

Zootopia [aka Zootropolis] (WILL WIN)

Best Cinematography

Bradford Young, Arrival

Linus Sandgren, La La Land (WILL and SHOULD WIN)

Greig Fraser, Lion

James Laxton, Moonlight

Rodrigo Prieto, Silence

Best Costume Design

Joanna Johnston, Allied

Colleen Atwood, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Consolata Boyle, Florence Foster Jenkins

Madeline Fontaine, Jackie (tied SHOULD WIN)

Mary Zophres, La La Land (WILL WIN/tied SHOULD WIN)

Best Director

Denis Villeneuve, Arrival

Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge

Damien Chazelle, La La Land (WILL and SHOULD WIN)

Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Best Documentary Feature

Fire at Sea

I Am Not Your Negro

Life, Animated

O.J.: Made in America (SHOULD WIN)

13th (WILL WIN)

Best Documentary (Short Subject)

Extremis (tied WILL WIN)

4.1 Miles

Joe’s Violin (tied SHOULD WIN)

Watani: My Homeland (tied WILL and SHOULD win)

The White Helmets

Best Film Editing

Joe Walker, Arrival (SHOULD WIN)

John Gilbert, Hacksaw Ridge

Jake Roberts, Hell or High Water

Tom Cross, La La Land (WILL WIN)

Nat Sanders and Joi McMillon, Moonlight

Best Foreign Language Film

Land of Mine

A Man Called Ove

The Salesman


Toni Erdmann (WILL and SHOULD WIN) our review

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Eva von Bahr and Love Larson, A Man Called Ove 

Joel Harlow and Richard Alonzo, Star Trek Beyond (WILL and SHOULD WIN)

Alessandro Bertolazzi, Giorgio Gregorini, and Christopher Nelson; Suicide Squad

Best Original Score

Mica Levi, Jackie

Justin Hurwitz, La La Land (WILL and SHOULD WIN)

Dustin O’Halloran and Hauschka, Lion

Nicholas Britell, Moonlight

Thomas Newman, Passengers

Best Original Song

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land – Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul (SHOULD WIN)

“Can’t Stop The Feeling” from Trolls – Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster

“City Of Stars” from La La Land – Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul (WILL WIN)

“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story – Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting

“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana – Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda

Best Production Design

Patrice Vermette and Paul Hotte, Arrival

Stuart Craig and Anna Pinnock, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh, Hail, Caesar!

David Wasco and Sandy Reynolds-Wasco, La La Land (WILL and SHOULD WIN)

Guy Hendrix Dyas and Gene Serdena, Passengers

Best Animated Short Film

Blind Vaysha

Borrowed Time

Pear Cider and Cigarettes



Best Live Action Short Film

Ennemis Intérieurs

La Femme et le TGV

Silent Nights (tied WILL and SHOULD WIN)

Sing (tied WILL and SHOULD WIN)

Timecode (tied SHOULD WIN)

Best Sound Editing

Sylvain Bellemare, Arrival (SHOULD WIN)

Wylie Stateman and Renée Tondelli, Deepwater Horizon

Robert Mackenzie and Andy Wright, Hacksaw Ridge

Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatrou Morgan, La La Land (WILL WIN)

Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman, Sully

Best Sound Mixing

Bernard Gariépy Strobl and Claude La Haye, Arrival (SHOULD WIN)

Kevin O’Connell, Andy Wright, Robert Mackenzie, and Peter Grace, Hacksaw Ridge

Andy Nelson, Ai-Ling Lee, and Steve A. Morrow, La La Land (WILL WIN)

David Parker, Christopher Scarabosio, and Stuart Wilson, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush, and Mac Ruth, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

Best Visual Effects

Craig Hammeck, Jason Snell, Jason Billington, and Burt Dalton, Deepwater Horizon

Stephane Ceretti, Richard Bluff, Vincent Cirelli, and Paul Corbould, Doctor Strange (SHOULD WIN)

Robert Legato, Adam Valdez, Andrew R. Jones, and Dan Lemmon, The Jungle Book (WILL WIN)

Steve Emerson, Oliver Jones, Brian McLean, and Brad Schiff, Kubo and the Two Strings

John Knoll, Mohen Leo, Hal Hickel, and Neil Corbould, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival – Eric Heisserer, based on the short story “Story of Your Life” by Ted Chiang (SHOULD WIN)

Fences – August Wilson, based on the play by August Wilson

Hidden Figures – Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi, based on the book “Hidden Figures” by Margot Shetterly

Lion – Luke Davies, based on the book” A Long Way Home” by Saroo Brierley

Moonlight – Barry Jenkins, story by Tarell Alvin McCraney, based on the play “In Moonlight Black Boys Look Blue” by Tarell Alvin McCraney (WILL WIN)

Best Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water – Taylor Sheridan

La La Land – Damien Chazelle

The Lobster – Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou

Manchester by the Sea – Kenneth Lonergan (WILL and SHOULD WIN)

20th Century Women – Mike Mills – our review

Agree? Disagree? Who do you think will win? Let us know in the comments…and stay tuned for the Oscars themselves, airing on Sky Movies Oscars at 1:30am GMT, Monday February 27.

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